Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Confirmation bias and 'a frog in a well'

You are working with a deck of four cards that have a letter on one side and a number on the other. They are lying on the table with different sides facing up, as shown:

A

B

4

7

One theorem about the deck states: If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.

Which cards do you have to flip over to verify that the theorem is not false?

If you are thinking about turning A and 4, you are diagnosed with confirmation bias-ness.

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency for people to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true. As a result, people gather evidence and recall information from memory selectively, and interpret it in a biased way. The biases appear in particular for emotionally significant issues and for established beliefs.

What I came to understand was that in many areas, we should also expose ourselves to information which we do not favor. This type of exposure may be lacking for me and perhaps you. To me, confirmation bias serves as a possible explanation to why I am often caught unprepared when I encounter questions (from books) which non-Christians might ask. There's so much to learn about that I really feel like a frog in a well.

Using the mind (and not only the mind) to love Christ - need to learn to love this arduous task.

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